Research Interests:

Statistical applications in AIDS research, clinical trial monitoring, longitudinal studies, spatial and spatiotemporal disease mapping, spatial boundary analysis, Bayes and empirical Bayes methodology, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods

Research Projects

Enhanced Evaluation of Second Stage Translational Research
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: Yale University
Enhanced Evaluation of Second Stage Translational Resear

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF PREDICTIONS OF TFM-NICLOSAMIDE CONCENTRATIONS FOR TREATMENT OF SEA LAMPRY SPAWNING TRIBUTARIES
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: USDI U.S. Geological Survey
IMPROVING THE ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF PREDICTIONS OF TFM-NICLOSAMIDE CONCENTRATIONS FOR TREATMENT OF SEA LAMPRY SPAWNING TRIBUTARIES

Lilly Oncology
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: Eli Lilly and Company
Lilly Oncology

Lilly Oncology
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: Eli Lilly and Company
Lilly Oncology

MCMSki II: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Theory and Practice
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI)
MCMSki II: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Theory and Practice

Medtronic Support for Biostatistics
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: Medtronic

Statistical Methods in Cancer Control and Epidemiology
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Investigators: Bradley P. Carlin (PI) Sudipto Banerjee (Co-PI) Melanie Wall (Co-PI) Cavan Reilly (Co-PI)
Funding Agency: NCI (1-R01-CA95955)

Support for the 4th International Joint IMS-ISBA Confere
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: DOD National Security Agency (NSA)
Support for the 4th International Joint IMS-ISBA Confere

Travel Support for the 4th International Joint IMS-ISBA
Principal Investigator: Bradley P. Carlin
Funding Agency: The National Science Foundation
Travel Support for the 4th International Joint IMS-ISBA

Selected Publications:

Lu, H. and Carlin, B.P., “ Bayesian areal wombling for geographical boundary analysis,” Geographical Analysis , 37, 265–285, 2005.

Jin, X., Carlin B.P., and Banerjee, S., “ Generalized hierarchical multivariate CAR models for areal data,” Biometrics, 61, 950–961, 2005.

Carlin B.P. and Banerjee, S., “ Hierarchical multivariate CAR models for spatio-temporally correlated survival data,” to appear (with discussion in Bayesian Statistics 7, eds. J.M. Bernardo et al., Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P., and van der Linde, A., “ Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit,” (with discussion rejoinder) J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser. B, 64, 583-639, 2002.

Technical Reports:

• rr2012-002.pdf and rr2012-002suppl.pdf Hatfield, L.A., Hodges, J.S., and Carlin, B.P.“Combining longitudinal and survival information in Bayesian joint models: When are treatment estimates improved?”Research Report 2012-2, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Biostatistics.

• rr2012-003.pdf Erickson, D.J., Carlin, B.P., Lenk, K.M., Quick, H.S., Harwood, E.M., and Toomey, T.L.Do neighborhood attributes moderate the relationship between alcohol establishment density and crime?Research Report 2012-3, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Prevention Science.

• rr2012-001.pdf Murray, T.A., Carlin, B.P, and Lystig, T.C.Bayesian adaptive design for device surveillance.Research Report 2012-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Clinical Trials.

• rr2012-004.pdf Skinner, B. and Carlin, B.P.The price of anarchy in football.Research Report 2012-4, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Sports for Dorks.

• rr2012-005.pdf Brian P. Hobbs, Bradley P. Carlin, and Daniel J. SargentRandomization in the presence of historical controls.Research Report 2012-5, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Clinical Trials.

• rr2012-009.pdf Zhong, W., Koopmeiners, J.S., and Carlin, B.P.“A two-stage Bayesian design with sample size reestimation and subgroup analysis for phase II binary response trials.”Research Report 2012-9, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Contemporary Clinical Trials.

• rr2012-015.pdf Carlin, B.P., Zhong, W., and Koopmeiners, J.S.Discussion of “Small-Sample Behavior of Novel Phase I Cancer Trial Designs,” by Assaf P. Oron and Peter D. Hoff.Research Report 2012-15, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Clinical Trials.

• rr2012-018.pdf Hong, H., Chu, H., Zhang, J., and Carlin, B.P.“A Bayesian missing data framework for generalized multiple outcome mixed treatment comparisons.”Research Report 2012-18, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2012Submitted to Biometrics.

• rr2011-019.pdf Toomey, T.L., Erickson, D.J., Carlin, B.P., Lenk, K.M., Quick, H.S., Jones, A.M., & Harwood, E.M.The association between density of alcohol establishments and violent crime within urban neighborhoods Research Report 2011-19, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Under revision for Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research

• rr2011-022.pdf Wei Zhong, Joseph S. Koopmeiners, and Bradley P. CarlinA Trivariate Continual Reassessment Method for Phase I/II Trials of Toxicity, Efficacy, and Surrogate Efficacy Research Report 2011-22, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to Statistics in Medicine

• rr2011-024.pdf and rr2011-024suppl.pdf Harrison Quick, Sudipto Banerjee, and Bradley P. Carlin Modeling temporal gradients in regionally aggregated California asthma hospitalization data Research Report 2011-24, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to the Annals of Applied Statistics.

• rr2011-025.pdf Murakami, T., Feeney, D.A., Willey, J., and Carlin, B.P.,“Canine thoracolumbar intervertebral disc herniation site localization accuracy: analysis of neurologic and survey radiographic data using logistic regression models.”Research Report 2011-25, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to the American Journal of Veterinary Research

• rr2011-026.pdf Murakami, T., Carlin, B.P., Feeney, D.A., and Willey, J.“Comparing elicited and spatial smoothing priors in Bayesian logistic regression models for predicting the site of canine thoracolumbar disc herniation.”Research Report 2011-26, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to Preventive Veterinary Medicine.

• rr2011-027.pdf Carlin, B.P., Hong, H., Shamliyan, T.A., Wyman, J.F., Ramakrishnan, R., Sainfort, F., and Kane, R.L.“Bayesian approaches for multiple treatment comparisons of drugs for urgency urinary incontinence are more informative than traditional frequentist statistical approaches.”Research Report 2011-27, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

• rr2011-029.pdf Hatfield, L.A. and Carlin, B.P.Clinically relevant output from Bayesian joint longitudinal-survival models Research Report 2011-29, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology

• rr2011-031.pdf Zhong, W., Carlin, B.P., and Koopmeiners, J.S.“Flexible link continual reassessment methods for trivariate binary outcome phase I/II trials.”Research Report 2011-31, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2011Submitted to the Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice.

• rr2010-018.pdf Waller, L.A. and Carlin, B.P.Disease Mapping Research Report 2010-18, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2010In Handbook of Spatial Statistics, eds. P. Diggle, M. Fuentes, A.E. Gelfand, and P. Guttorp,

• rr2010-007.pdf Fitzpatrick, M.C., Preisser, E.L., Porter, A., Elkinton, J., Waller, L.A., Carlin, B.P., and Ellison Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling Research Report 2010-7, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2010To appear Ecology.

• rr2009-018.pdf Hatfield, L., Gutreuter, S., Boogaard, M.A., and Carlin, B.P.Multilevel empirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations to suppress parasitic sea lamprey in the upper Great Lakes Research Report 2009-18, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2009Submitted to Biometrics

• rr2009-017.pdf Hobbs, B.P., Carlin, B.P., Mandrekar, S., and Sargent, D.J.Hierarchical commensurate prior models for adaptive incorporation of historical information in clinical trials Research Report 2009-17, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2009Submitted to Biometrics

• rr2008-017.pdf Xia, H.A., Ma, H., and Carlin, B.P.Bayesian hierarchical modeling for detecting safety signals in clinical trials Research Report 2008-17, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2008Submitted to J. Biopharameceutical Statistics

• rr2004-010.pdf Britt, H.B., Carlin, B.P., Toomey, T.L., and Wagenaar, A.C.Neighborhood level spatial analysis of the relationship between alcohol outlet density and criminal violence.Research Report 2004-10, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2004To appear Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

• rr2004-009.pdf Xie, Y. and Carlin, B.P.A note on Bayesian learning and identifiability in hierarchical models.Research Report 2004-9, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2004Submitted to J. Statist. Plann. Inf.

• rr2004-005.pdf Carlin, B.P.Whither applied Bayesian inference?Research Report 2004-5, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2004To appear in Missing Data and Bayesian Methods in Practice.

• rr2004-003.pdf Lu, H. and Carlin, B.P.Bayesian areal wombling for geographical boundary analysis.Research Report 2004-3, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2004To appear Geographical Analysis.

• rr2004-001.pdf Jin, X., Carlin, B.P., and Banerjee, S.Generalized hierarchical multivariate CAR models for areal data Research Report 2004-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2004Under revision for Biometrics.

• rr2003-015.pdf Short, M. and Carlin, B.P.Multivariate spatiotemporal CDFs with measurement error Research Report 2003-15, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2003Submitted to Bayesian Analysis (Journal of ISBA).

• rr2003-014.pdf Short, M., Carlin, B.P., and Gelfand, A.E.Bivariate spatial process modeling for constructing indicator or intensity weighted spatial CDFs Research Report 2003-14, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2003Submitted to Biostatistics.

• rr2003-003.pdf Guo, X. and Carlin, B.P.Separate and joint modeling of longitudinal and event time data using standard computer packages Research Report 2003-3, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2003To appear in The American Statistician.

• rr2003-002.pdf Jin, X. and Carlin, B.P.Multivariate parametric spatio-temporal models for county level breast cancer survival data Research Report 2003-2, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2003Submitted to Lifetime Data Analysis.

• rr2002-019.pdf Short, M., Carlin, B.P., and Gelfand, A.E.Covariate-adjusted and bivariate spatial CDF modeling Research Report 2002-19, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2002Submitted to J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.

• rr2002-001.pdf Short, M., Carlin, B.P., and Bushhouse, S.Using hierarchical spatial models for cancer control planning in Minnesota.Research Report 2002-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2002To appear Cancer Causes and Control.

• rr2001-013.pdf Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P., and Van der Linde, A.Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit.Research Report 2001-13, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2001To appear (with discussion), J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser B.

• rr2001-010.pdf Zhu, L., Carlin, B.P., and Gelfand, A.E.Hierarchical regression with misaligned spatial data: Relating ambient ozone and pediatric asthma ER visits in Atlanta Research Report 2001-10, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2001Submitted to Environmetrics.

• rr2000-021.pdf Carlin, B.P., Zhu, L., and Gelfand, A.E.Accommodating scale misalignment in spatio-temporal data.Research Report 2000-21, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2000Submitted to ISBA 2000.

• rr2000-011.pdf Gelfand, A.E., Zhu, L., and Carlin, B.P.On the change of support problem for spatio-temporal data Research Report 2000-11, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2000Submitted to Biostatistics.

• rr2000-004.pdf Gelfand, A.E., Carlin, B.P., and Trevisani, M.On computation using Gibbs sampling for multilevel models.Research Report 2000-4, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2000Submitted to Statistica Sinica.

• rr2000-001.pdf Han, C. and Carlin, B.P.MCMC methods for computing Bayes factors: A comparative review Research Report 2000-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 2000Submitted to JASA-Review.

• rr99-009.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Perez, M.-E.Robust Bayesian Analysis in Medical and Epidemiological Settings Research Report 1999-9, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1999Submitted to Robust Bayesian Analysis.

• rr99-008.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Louis, T.A.Empirical Bayes: past, present, and futureResearch Report 1999-8, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1999To appear J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.

• rr99-006.pdf Zhu, L. and Carlin, B.P.Comparing hierarchical models for spatio-temporally misaligned data using the DIC criterionResearch Report 1999-6, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1999To appear Statistics in Medicine.

• rr99-001.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Stern, H.S.Designing a College Football Playoff SystemResearch Report 1999-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1999To appear Chance.

• rr98-024.pdf Zhu, L., Carlin, B.P., English, P. and Scalf, R.Hierarchical modeling of spatio-temporally misaligned data: relating traffic density to pediatric asthma hospitalizations.Research Report 1998-24, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1998To appear Environmetrics

• rr98-013.pdf Johnson, B., Carlin, B.P., and Hodges, J.S.Cross-study hierarchical modeling of stratified clinical trial data’Research Report 1998-13, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1998To appear J. Biopharmaceutical Statistics.

• rr98-010.pdf Waller, L.A., Louis, T.A. and Carlin, B.P.Environmental justice and statistical summaries of differences in exposure distributionsResearch Report 1998-10, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1998To appear J. Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology.

• rr98-009.pdf Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., and Carlin, B.P.Bayesian deviance, the effective number of parameters, and the comparison of arbitrarily complex modelsResearch Report 1998-9, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1998Submitted to J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser. B .

• rr98-007.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Xia, H.Assessing Environmental Justice using Bayesian Hierarchical Models: Two Case StudiesResearch Report 1998-7, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1998To appear J. Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology

• rr97-019.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Hodges, J.S.Hierarchical proportional hazards regression models for highly stratified dataResearch Report 1997-19, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1997To appear Biometrics.

• rr97-011.pdf Carlin, B.P., Xia, H., Devine, O., Tolbert, P. and Mulholland, J.Spatio-temporal hierarchical models for analyzing Atlanta pediatric asthma ER visit rates.Research Report 1997-11, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1997To appear Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Volume IV

• rr97-010.pdf Heyd, J.M. and Carlin, B.P.Adaptive design improvements in the continual reassessment method for phase I studiesResearch Report 1997-10, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1997Submitted to Statistics in Medicine

• rr97-008.pdf Chib, S. and Carlin, B.P.On MCMC sampling in hierarchical longitudinal modelsResearch Report 1997-8, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1997To appear Statistics and Computing

• rr97-001.pdf Kass, R.E., Carlin, B.P., Gelman, A., and Neal, R.M.Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice: A Roundtable Discussion,Research Report 1997-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1997The American Statistician, 52, 93-100, 1998.

• rr96-012.pdf Xia, H. and Carlin, B.P.Spatio-temporal models with errors in covariates: Mapping Ohio lung cancer ratesResearch Report 1996-12, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996To appear Statistics in Medicine , 1998.

• rr96-010.pdf Waller, L.A., Carlin, B.P., and Xia, H.Structuring correlation within hierarchical spatio-temporal models for disease ratesResearch Report 1996-10, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996In Modelling Longitudinal and Spatially Correlated Data, eds. T.G. Gregoire et al., New York:

• rr96-008.pdf Waller, L.A., Louis, T.A., and Carlin, B.P.Statistical issues in GIS assessments of environmental justiceResearch Report 1996-8, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996Submitted to J. Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology.

• rr96-007.pdf Breiter, D. and Carlin, B.P.How to play office pools if you must: Maximizing expected gain in tournament modelsResearch Report 1996-7, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996 Chance , 10, 5-11, 1997.

• rr96-006.pdf Waller, L.A., Louis, T.A. and Carlin, B.P.,Bayes methods for combining disease and exposure data in assessing environmental justice.Research Report 1996-6, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996in Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 1997, 4 , 267-281.

• rr96-005.pdf Ghosh, M., Natarajan, K., Stroud, T.W.F. and Carlin, B.P.,Generalized linear models for small area estimation.Research Report 1996-5, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996J. Amer. Statist. Assoc, 93, 273–282, 1998.

• rr96-004.pdf Carlin, B.P., Kadane, J.B. and Gelfand, A.E.,Approaches for Optimal Sequential Decision Analysis in Clinical Trials.Research Report 1996-4, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1996To appear Biometrics.

• rr95-011.pdf Xia, H., Carlin, B.P., and Waller, L.A.,Hierarchical models for mapping Ohio lung cancer rates.gResearch Report 1995-11, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1995Environmetrics, 8, 107-120, 1997.

• rr95-005.pdf Waller, L.A., Carlin, B.P., Xia, H., and Gelfand, A.E.,Hierarchical spatio-temporal mapping of disease rates.gResearch Report 1995-5, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1995To appear J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 1997.

• rr95-001.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Sargent, D.J.,Robust Bayesian approaches for clinical trial monitoring.gResearch Report 1995-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1995Statistics in Medicine, 15, 1093–1106, 1996.

• rr94-008.pdf and rr94-008figs.ps.Z Cowles, M.K., and Carlin, B.P.,Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence diagnostics: A comparative review.Research Report 1994-8, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 91, 883-904, 1996.

• rr94-007.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Goldman, A.I.,Bayesian evaluation of CD4 count as a surrogate endpoint in patients with advanced HIV infection.Research Report 1994-7, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994

• rr94-006.pdf Ghosh, M., Carlin, B.P. and Srivastava, M.S.,Probability matching priors for linear calibration,Research Report 1994-6, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994Test, 4, 333-357, 1995.

• rr94-004.pdf Carlin, B.P.,Improved NCAA basketball tournament modeling via point spread and team strength information,Research Report 1994-4, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994The American Statistician, 50, 39-43, 1996.

• rr94-002.pdf Gelfand, A.E., Sahu, S.K., and Carlin, B.P.,Efficient parametrizations for generalized linear mixed models (with discussion)Research Report 1994-2, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994In Bayesian Statistics 5, eds. J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid and A.F.M. Smith, Oxfor

• rr94-001.pdf and rr94-001figs.ps.Z Gelfand, A.E., Sahu, S.K., and Carlin, B.P.,Efficient parametrizations for normal linear mixed models,Research Report 1994-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1994Biometrika, 82, 479-488, 1995.

• rr93-011.pdf Carlin, B.P.,Hierarchical longitudinal modeling with application to HIV progression,Research Report 1993-11, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1993In Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo, eds. W. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. Spiegelhalter, Lo

• rr93-001.pdf Carlin, B.P. and Louis, T.A.,Identifying prior distributions that produce specific decisions, with application to monitoring clinical trials,Research Report 1993-1, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota, 1993In Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner, eds. D. Berry, K.